Bernie Moreno has effectively turned the CLARITY Act into Congress’s final realistic opportunity this cycle to establish clear crypto regulations before political timelines and lobbying pressures close the window.
Summary
Senator Moreno has set an end-of-May deadline for passing the CLARITY Act, warning that missing it could delay U.S. crypto legislation for years.
The bill faces multiple hurdles in a short timeframe, while opposition from banks—especially over stablecoin yield provisions—and competing priorities in Congress are slowing progress.
Prediction markets now assign less than a 50% chance of the Act becoming law in 2026, as industry leaders caution that capital and innovation are shifting to regions like Dubai and Singapore.
At an event in Washington on April 22, Moreno made it clear that time is running out. While he expressed confidence that the bill could pass by the end of May, he also stressed that failure to do so would likely stall digital asset legislation for the foreseeable future, particularly as the midterm election cycle begins to dominate the agenda.
A narrow and complex path forward
Despite earlier progress—the House passing its version in July 2025 and the Senate Agriculture Committee approving its draft in January—the bill still has several major steps ahead. These include a Senate Banking Committee markup, securing 60 votes on the Senate floor, reconciling different versions of the bill, and obtaining final presidential approval.
Complicating matters further, the Banking Committee has yet to hold a formal vote, leaving a tight timeline with only weeks available before Congress breaks for the Memorial Day recess.
Banking opposition and political bottlenecks
Moreno has also pushed back against resistance from the banking sector, particularly around stablecoin yield provisions. Critics within the banking industry argue that high-yield stablecoins could pull deposits away from traditional institutions, potentially impacting financial stability.
At the same time, legislative attention is being diverted by other priorities, including the nomination process for Kevin Warsh, which is consuming valuable committee time and delaying progress on the bill.
Market sentiment and global competition
The uncertainty is already reflected in prediction markets, where the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 has dropped below 50%. Earlier optimism has faded as delays persist and legislative hurdles remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, policymakers such as Scott Bessent have warned that continued inaction could drive crypto innovation and investment toward more supportive jurisdictions like Dubai and Singapore, both of which are actively attracting digital asset businesses.
The stakes
With limited legislative time remaining, the coming weeks are critical. The outcome will determine whether the U.S. establishes a clear regulatory framework for crypto markets—or risks losing influence as capital and innovation shift elsewhere.
