Bitcoin is retreating from the upper boundary of its ascending channel on Federal Open Market Committee day, as a daily MACD bearish crossover takes shape and price drifts toward key moving average support. This analysis explores the chart structure, possible price paths, and how the transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh introduces added uncertainty.
Summary
Bitcoin is trading around $75,834 on April 29, down 0.67%, with a confirmed daily MACD bearish crossover signaling weakening momentum.
Price has pulled back from the top of its ascending channel and is now testing the 20-day SMA near $75,685 as immediate support.
A breakdown below this level could expose the 50-day SMA near $72,082, while a move above $80,000 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
Bitcoin is holding near $75,834 after slipping 0.67% on the day, following a high of $77,904 before sellers regained control ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The decline coincides with Powell’s final FOMC press conference before his term ends on May 15, alongside a shift in momentum as the MACD histogram turns negative for the first time in weeks—hinting that April’s 21% rally may be losing steam.
Bearish MACD signal near channel resistance
The daily chart reveals two overlapping structures. An ascending channel from February lows near $59,000 continues to guide the recovery, marked by parallel upward trendlines. At the same time, a broader descending channel from February highs near $85,000 is capping upside, with the 200-day SMA at $84,423 acting as a major resistance within that range.
Bitcoin recently tested the upper boundary of the ascending channel near $78,000 on April 28 before reversing sharply. After peaking at $77,904, price has since dropped back toward $75,834. The key technical development is the MACD crossover, with the MACD line at 1,650.21 falling below the signal line at 1,815.33, and a negative histogram reading confirming bearish momentum on the daily timeframe.
Analyst Michael van de Poppe noted that pullbacks around FOMC events are common, but warned that a drop below $73,000 would indicate a more significant correction rather than a routine retracement.
Key levels to watch
The immediate support sits at the 20-day SMA near $75,685, which is currently being tested. A daily close below this level would weaken short-term structure and shift focus to the 50-day SMA at $72,082 and the 100-day SMA at $72,659. These levels cluster within the $72,000–$73,000 range, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
A confirmed break below $72,000 would invalidate the channel and potentially trigger a move toward the $65,000–$68,000 region, where strong accumulation was previously observed.
On the upside, $80,000 remains the key resistance level. A decisive move above it would negate the bearish MACD signal and restore a more neutral outlook. Beyond that, the 200-day SMA at $84,423 and the upper boundary of the broader descending channel represent critical levels for a sustained trend reversal.
ETF flows and derivatives backdrop
Recent data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $89.68 million in net outflows on April 28, ending an eight-day inflow streak totaling $2.43 billion. Historically, Bitcoin has declined within 48 hours after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings, largely due to traders unwinding positions ahead of the event rather than the policy decision itself.
The current setup—following a 21% April rally with sentiment still cautious—resembles previous conditions that led to sharp post-FOMC pullbacks.
Fed transition adds uncertainty
This FOMC meeting carries additional significance as Powell prepares to step down on May 15. Kevin Warsh is expected to lead his first meeting in mid-June, and his relatively hawkish stance could influence future rate expectations.
Shifts in Federal Reserve communication have already impacted institutional flows throughout 2026, and elevated oil prices near $105 per barrel are further complicating the outlook. As a result, the period immediately following this FOMC decision could be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or extends its decline toward $72,000.
If Bitcoin manages to hold above the 20-day SMA and reclaim $77,500 on a daily close, the current pullback may remain a temporary correction within the broader uptrend. However, a confirmed break below $72,082 would signal a deeper downside move is underway.
