XRP has been trading in a tight consolidation range over the past two weeks, as investors adopt a cautious stance amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Summary
XRP has been stuck between $1.25 and $1.40 for over two weeks, slipping nearly 16% from its March peak as risk-off sentiment dominates.
Increasing exchange inflows and an estimated $6 billion in whale selling since October continue to weigh on price, while futures open interest remains muted.
Technical indicators suggest a possible drop toward $1.12, although some analysts still anticipate a major long-term breakout.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.33, holding within its recent range but struggling to regain bullish momentum. Despite its status as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, the token has faced sustained selling pressure since peaking in March.
The decline accelerated shortly after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17. While the decision removed long-standing legal uncertainty, it also triggered a “sell-the-news” reaction, as investors rushed to lock in profits.
On-chain data indicates that large holders have been steadily offloading their positions since October, with total sales estimated at around $6 billion. These whales appear to be using price rallies as exit opportunities, adding consistent downward pressure.
Broader market conditions have also played a role. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have dampened risk appetite across global markets, further weighing on crypto assets, including XRP.
Recent data shows that nearly $160 million worth of XRP has been transferred to exchanges over the past two days. Such inflows often signal potential selling activity, raising the likelihood of a deeper correction if liquidation follows.
Meanwhile, activity in the derivatives market has weakened. Open interest in XRP futures has remained stuck between $2 billion and $3 billion for over a month—well below the $9 billion peak seen in October—indicating reduced trader participation and fading momentum.
XRP price analysis
From a technical perspective, short-term indicators suggest further downside risk for XRP.
A bearish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages signals weakening momentum. Additionally, the price has fallen below the key $1.43 level, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the January high to the February low.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. The Supertrend indicator has turned negative, while the Relative Strength Index has slipped below neutral levels.
As a result, XRP could revisit its February 5 low near $1.12. A break below this support may accelerate losses toward the psychological $1.00 level.
Long-term outlook remains mixed
Despite the near-term bearish signals, some analysts remain optimistic about XRP’s long-term potential.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently suggested that XRP could surge by over 500% if it breaks out of a long-term descending triangle pattern that has been forming on the monthly chart for nearly nine years.
