Bernstein, which oversees roughly $867 billion in assets, said on March 24 that the bottom for Bitcoin may already be in. The firm reaffirmed its end-2026 price target of $150,000 — suggesting a potential upside of over 100% from current levels — while arguing that the ongoing correction is fundamentally different from past bear markets.
Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani described the current downturn as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” attributing the decline to a temporary loss of investor confidence rather than any weakening of Bitcoin’s core fundamentals. At the time of writing, BTC was trading near $70,668, down about 40% from its recent high, yet Bernstein remains firmly bullish.
A milder drawdown compared to past cycles
Bernstein highlighted how previous Bitcoin cycles saw much steeper declines. The 2013 rally ended with an 84% drop, the 2017 cycle saw a 77% correction, and the 2021 peak was followed by a roughly 70% fall. In contrast, the current 40% pullback appears relatively contained and, in the firm’s view, structurally less risky.
The analysts attribute this difference to stronger institutional participation and a more supportive regulatory environment. Continued growth in spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing corporate treasury allocations, and a more favorable U.S. policy backdrop have all helped stabilize the market. Importantly, the systemic failures seen in 2022 — such as exchange collapses and lending crises — are absent in the current cycle.
Institutional support and on-chain signals
Bernstein also pointed to continued accumulation by MicroStrategy as a sign of long-term confidence. The firm now controls around 3.6% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, valued at roughly $53.5 billion, and has raised billions this year to expand its holdings further. According to Bernstein, only an extreme and prolonged price collapse would pose any serious risk to its balance sheet.
On-chain metrics provide additional context. Analysts note that Bitcoin is nearing key valuation levels that have historically preceded major rallies. Reduced retail participation and declining market activity, while often seen as bearish, have typically marked accumulation phases before the next upward cycle.
Mixed views across the market
Despite Bernstein’s optimism, not all analysts share the same outlook. Jan van Eck recently suggested that Bitcoin could still be following its traditional four-year cycle, where deeper corrections are common. Some traders also warn that failure to hold above $70,000 could lead to a retest of the $60,000 support zone.
Still, Bernstein’s $150,000 forecast aligns with several bullish institutional projections. Other industry figures, including Brad Garlinghouse, have also outlined aggressive long-term targets, with Bernstein even projecting Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2033.
