U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen eight straight days of heavy selling, with investors pulling roughly $825 million in total as year-end tax strategies, particularly tax loss harvesting, dominate market behavior.
Analyst Alek explained that this selling pressure is largely temporary, driven by investors offsetting losses for taxes and by de-risking ahead of Bitcoin’s quarterly options expiry. On December 24 alone, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $175 million in outflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF seeing the largest share at $91.37 million.
Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced outflows of $52.7 million, but some newer products showed resilience—Solana ETFs gained $1.48 million, and XRP ETFs added $11.93 million in fresh capital.
A regional shift in Bitcoin demand
Interestingly, analysts are noting a geographic rotation in Bitcoin activity. The U.S. has become the main source of selling, while Asian buyers are stepping in to accumulate, a reversal of the usual crypto market flow patterns, according to analyst Ted Pillows.
At the same time, whale activity on Binance has dropped sharply, with large deposits halving from $7.9 billion to $3.9 billion in December. CryptoQuant data shows monthly whale inflows fell from $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion, signaling a slowdown in potential selling pressure. Yet, isolated spikes remain, with hundreds of millions moving across Bitcoin cohorts. Binance continues to see the largest share of exchange flows, indicating it remains the central hub for major trades.
Bitcoin carving its own path
Bitcoin’s market behavior is increasingly decoupling from traditional assets. Its correlation with the Nasdaq is approaching zero, and it is now moving negatively against gold. According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, Bitcoin is no longer trading like a tech stock or a safe haven—it is “carving out its own market regime.”
While gold and silver continue climbing, Bitcoin has remained range-bound. Analysts attribute this to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of lower real interest rates, and easier institutional access to precious metals. Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe haven, which explains why it lags when capital flows into gold and government bonds during risk-off periods.
Market sentiment and potential bear phase
Recent metrics show stagnant demand and some selling pressure from short-term holders, with the Short-Term Holder SOPR lingering below 1—indicating that recent buyers are selling at losses or break-even. Bitcoin’s apparent demand has turned negative, while gold trades above $4,500 per ounce and Bitcoin struggles to maintain $90,000.
The Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI) suggests the market may be entering a bear phase, though it’s still too early to confirm a full trend. Polymarket odds for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end have fallen to just 3%, reflecting weak near-term sentiment.
Despite current challenges, analyst Plan C remains optimistic, predicting that Bitcoin will regain momentum in 2026, potentially rebalancing against gold and silver. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $87,838, down nearly 30% from its October peak above $126,000.
