Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP, has revealed a bearish stance on Ethereum, disclosing a medium-term short position opened at $2,242 while framing the ongoing US-Iran conflict as a defining macro turning point.
Summary
Jiang Zhuoer opened an ETH short at $2,242, calling war-driven rallies opportunities to add to bearish positions.
He describes the US-Iran conflict as a “Suez Canal Crisis moment” for the U.S., signaling a potential shift in global power.
Ethereum trades around the mid-$2,200s, with macro risks outweighing fundamentals in the near term.
‘Suez Canal moment’ shapes bearish thesis
In a recent post, Jiang Zhuoer compared current geopolitical tensions to the Suez Canal Crisis—a pivotal event often seen as marking the decline of British global dominance.
He argues that the most likely outcome of the US-Iran conflict is Iran gaining effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. While the United States may not formally recognize such a shift, he suggests it could tacitly accept the new reality.
Macro pressure over fundamentals
Ethereum is currently trading in the mid-$2,200 range, down from recent highs above $2,600. According to Jiang, this price action reflects broader macro stress rather than weaknesses in Ethereum’s fundamentals.
Rising energy prices and geopolitical instability are driving a risk-off environment, which tends to weigh heavily on speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Jiang believes the current crypto bear cycle is still incomplete and that short-term rebounds triggered by war-related news should be viewed as selling opportunities.
A macro-driven short strategy
Jiang described his ETH position as a “medium-term operation,” indicating a broader macro trade rather than a short-term bet. He did not disclose position size or leverage but referenced past trades to highlight his strategy.
His outlook aligns Ethereum’s trajectory with developments in global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics rather than on-chain metrics. In this view, continued volatility in oil markets and unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could further pressure crypto prices.
What it means for markets
Jiang’s stance underscores a growing narrative in crypto markets: macro forces are currently dominating price action.
If geopolitical tensions escalate and energy prices remain elevated, risk assets like Ethereum could face additional downside pressure. Conversely, any easing of tensions may support a recovery.
