Most Polymarket Traders Lose Money While a Tiny Elite Takes the Biggest Profits
New data from blockchain analyst DeFi Oasis shows that 70% of Polymarket traders lost money, while just 30% turned a profit. Among more than 1.7 million trading addresses, fewer than 0.04% captured over 70% of total realized profits—around $3.7 billion.
Interestingly, most profitable traders earned relatively small gains. About 24.5% of addresses made between $0 and $1,000, but this accounted for only 0.86% of total profits. To earn more than $1,000, traders had to be in the top 4.9% of participants. The biggest winners—668 addresses with profits over $1 million each—took 71% of all gains, while only 2,551 traders earned between $100,000 and $1 million.
At the other end, over 1.1 million addresses (63.5%) lost between $0 and $1,000, with 149 traders losing more than $1 million each. This distribution highlights how prediction markets, like Polymarket, often benefit professional traders and sophisticated algorithms at the expense of most retail participants.
Polymarket Growth Continues Despite Skewed Profits
Despite the lopsided earnings, Polymarket is growing. Monthly active traders are approaching 462,600, and trading volumes have hit record highs. The platform recently relaunched in the U.S. after three years offshore following a $1.4 million CFTC settlement in 2022.
Founder Shayne Coplan, now 27 and a self-made billionaire, recently participated in an SEC and CFTC roundtable. Polymarket’s post-money valuation has climbed to $9 billion, including a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the NYSE.
Prediction Markets Spark Debate
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin defended prediction markets, arguing they encourage truth-seeking because financial stakes enforce accuracy. Critics, including Cassie Heart of Quilibrium, questioned the ethics of profiting from disasters or deaths. Buterin countered that traditional markets, with short positions, carry similar moral concerns.
Mainstream Adoption Accelerates
Prediction markets are gaining wider recognition. Google Finance now integrates live data from Polymarket and Kalshi, while FanDuel Predicts, launched with CME Group, offers contracts on crypto, commodities, and economic indicators. Coinbase is challenging state authority over prediction markets ahead of its Kalshi launch in January 2026.
Overall, combined trading volume across major platforms reached $44 billion in 2024, with on-chain markets climbing from under $100 million per month to over $13 billion. While the space is growing, most retail traders still subsidize profits for a tiny elite, leaving questions about whether regulation and institutional entry will improve outcomes for ordinary participants.
