Bitcoin Likely to Trade Sideways in Early 2026 as Capital Flows Slow, CryptoQuant Says
Bitcoin may be in for a quiet start to 2026, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who expects the world’s largest cryptocurrency to trade sideways through the first quarter as capital inflows into the asset slow.
“Capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up,” Ju said Wednesday, noting that money is rotating into stocks and precious metals like gold and silver as prices surge.
While Bitcoin has historically shown early-year momentum—January has averaged a 3.8% gain since 2013—Ju sees the coming months as subdued, likely marked by “boring sideways” trading rather than sharp rallies or steep sell-offs. February and March have historically been stronger, averaging 13.1% and 12.2% gains, respectively.
Current Market Moves
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $90,900, down more than 2% on the day and off its weekly high near $94,400, according to CoinMarketCap.
Despite the muted outlook, Ju doesn’t expect a deep drawdown. Market sentiment remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovering at 28, firmly in “fear” territory.
Yet, there are signs of ongoing institutional interest. Spot Bitcoin ETFs kicked off 2026 with $925.3 million in net inflows over the first three trading days, suggesting that larger investors are still engaged, even if short-term price action is subdued.
Diverging Views: Caution vs. Optimism
Ju’s cautious outlook mirrors warnings from veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity macro research director Jurrien Timmer, both of whom have suggested Bitcoin could dip to the $60,000–$65,000 range later this year.
On the flip side, long-term bulls remain confident:
Tim Draper, venture capitalist, continues to target $250,000 for Bitcoin, calling 2026 a potential breakout year.
Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise predicts Bitcoin could break its traditional four-year cycle and reach new highs in 2026.
Abra CEO Bill Barhydt says Bitcoin could benefit from easing monetary policy, as fresh liquidity and a revived risk appetite support crypto markets.
What This Means
The picture for early 2026 appears mixed: short-term price action may be flat, reflecting slow inflows and cautious sentiment, while institutional participation and bullish long-term projections keep optimism alive.
Investors may need to buckle in for a sideways market in Q1, but Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory could still surprise on the upside.
