Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market, says CryptoQuant
Bitcoin might have quietly entered a bear market as early as November, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. He points to a combination of technical and on-chain indicators that turned bearish and have yet to recover.
Key points
Bitcoin fell below its one-year moving average, a key long-term signal often used to confirm broader trend shifts.
Moreno’s analysis suggests a potential bear market bottom between $56,000 and $60,000.
CryptoQuant’s bull score index — which tracks network activity, investor profitability, demand, and liquidity — has been flashing warning signs for weeks.
Why the one-year moving average matters
For Moreno, the decisive signal came when Bitcoin dropped below its average price over the past 12 months. Historically, this marker distinguishes between long-term uptrends and downtrends, signaling a shift into bearish conditions.
After starting 2025 near $93,000, Bitcoin surged to about $126,000 in October but ended the year below its opening level. As of Friday, the cryptocurrency was trading around $88,500, supporting the view that a downturn may be underway.
What this means for investors
If Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market, it could challenge expectations of another strong growth year in 2026. Moreno estimates that Bitcoin could drift toward $56,000–$60,000, based on its realized price — the average price current holders paid for their coins. Historically, Bitcoin tends to gravitate back toward this level during prolonged downturns.
A drop to this range would represent a roughly 55% drawdown from its all-time high, which, while significant, is milder than previous bear markets that saw 70–80% losses. Unlike 2022, this cycle hasn’t seen major systemic collapses like Terra, Celsius, or FTX, and the growing presence of institutional investors and ETFs may help cushion the downside.
“Structurally, we now have more institutional or ETF participants who don’t sell, and there’s some steady buying,” Moreno said.
This shift, along with a deeper pool of market participants and more mature infrastructure, could help Bitcoin weather bearish conditions without triggering panic selling.
