Brad Garlinghouse stated at XRP Las Vegas 2026 on April 30 that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass the Senate Banking Committee before the May 21 Memorial Day recess, it risks being pushed back as far as 2030. He emphasized that the current alignment between the House, Senate, and White House on crypto regulation is unusually delicate and may not last.
Summary
The legislation has backing from over 120 firms, including Coinbase, Kraken, Circle, and Andreessen Horowitz, along with public support from the White House, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Lawmakers Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno have both warned that if the bill doesn’t pass in 2026, the next opportunity may not come until 2030.
Before becoming law, the CLARITY Act still needs to pass a Banking Committee markup, secure 60 votes in the Senate, reconcile differences between committee versions, align with the House’s July 2025 draft, and ultimately receive presidential approval.
Garlinghouse described May 21 as a firm cutoff, noting that the political conditions supporting the bill are rare and could shift after midterm elections. According to 247 Wall St., XRP has largely traded in anticipation of this legislation, and failure to meet the deadline could remove a key driver of institutional adoption this year. Meanwhile, Thom Tillis said he will urge Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott to schedule a markup once the Senate reconvenes on May 11.
Delays earlier in April—caused by the confirmation process of Kevin Warsh—left no room for a markup before recess, compressing the timeline to roughly eight working days between May 11 and May 21. The legislative process still requires multiple sequential steps, each demanding time the current calendar barely allows.
At the Bitcoin 2026 Conference on April 27, Senator Lummis reiterated that the current political alignment is uncommon and may not persist. As chair of the Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets—and without re-election pressures—she highlighted the urgency of acting now.
Market sentiment remains divided. Investor Mike Novogratz recently suggested the bill could still pass in May, but estimates from Galaxy Research place the odds at around 50%, while Polymarket currently prices the probability closer to 46%.
