Bitcoin is expected to deliver steady gains over the next decade, but investors shouldn’t expect the kind of explosive year-on-year rallies seen in previous cycles, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
Key Takeaways
Hougan sees Bitcoin’s long-term outlook as a “10-year grind up,” with steady returns and lower volatility rather than spectacular short-term rallies.
He remains bullish on 2026, citing continued institutional buying despite recent price weakness.
Some analysts warn that Bitcoin could still face deeper declines if the current cycle has already peaked.
Speaking on CNBC on Friday, Hougan described Bitcoin’s path forward as a slow but steady upward trend.
“I think we’re in a 10-year grind upward of strong returns. It’s not spectacular returns, [but] strong returns, lower volatility, some ups and downs,” he said.
Bullish on 2026 Despite Pullback
Hougan reaffirmed his positive outlook for 2026, a forecast he first shared in July—months before Bitcoin surged to a record high of $125,100 in October.
“I think next year will be up,” he said, even as debate grows over whether the current market cycle has already peaked.
The debate intensified after Bitcoin fell sharply from its October highs. At the time of publication, the asset is trading around $87,800, down about 3.8% over the past 30 days.
Sebastian Beau, CIO of ReserveOne, noted the decline has renewed questions about Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle:
“All-time highs were $125,000… we are bordering on $87,000 today, down 30% relatively quickly,” he said, calling the drop painful for investors.
Some market watchers also point out that the timing of October’s peak mirrors previous cycle tops, raising the possibility that 2026 could see further weakness.
Retail Pullback Offset by Institutions
Hougan argued that much of the recent weakness is linked to retail investors. Many “fast-moving” retail traders exited late in the year, anticipating a cycle-driven downturn.
However, he believes institutional investors have cushioned Bitcoin’s downside with slow, steady buying. Unlike earlier cycles, where drawdowns often exceeded 60%, this current pullback has been relatively shallow, suggesting long-term capital is providing support.
Not all analysts are as optimistic. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned Bitcoin could fall to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, highlighting ongoing risks from macroeconomic conditions and market structure.
Politics and Policy Won’t Drive the Next Leg
Hougan also downplayed the idea that US politics will fuel Bitcoin’s next rally. While the asset climbed to new highs earlier in 2025 following Donald Trump’s inauguration, he said the administration is unlikely to create significant upside going forward.
Looking ahead, opinions remain split. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer suggested 2026 could be a “pause year,” with prices potentially sliding toward $65,000. Others, like Strategy CEO Phong Le, remain more optimistic, arguing Bitcoin’s fundamentals held up well through 2025. Hougan himself expects 2026 to be an “up year” for the asset.
Market analyst Linh Tran from XS.com noted that Bitcoin’s recent price moves reflect sensitivity to monetary policy expectations rather than headline economic data.
