VanEck executives are sounding an optimistic note for Bitcoin, predicting a recovery next year even though the cryptocurrency has been underperforming recently.
David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, highlighted that Bitcoin is currently lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date, but he sees this gap as setting up the crypto for a strong rebound in 2026.
“Bitcoin is lagging, and that dislocation is setting it up to be a top performer next year,” Schassler wrote in VanEck’s 2026 outlook report.
Bitcoin’s Historical Cycle Remains Intact
Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s lead for Digital Assets Research, noted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact after its high in early October 2025. According to Sigel, this pattern suggests that 2026 will likely be a year of consolidation, rather than a sudden surge or crash.
The report, titled “Plan for 2026: Predictions from Our Portfolio Managers,” also offered a broadly positive view on crypto mining economics and the ongoing evolution of stablecoins.
Temporary Lows, Softer Risk Appetite
Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range after weeks of controlled downside, signaling consolidation rather than a fresh sell-off. Meanwhile, gold has been making headlines, surging past $4,500 an ounce for the first time.
Schassler explained that the current Bitcoin slump reflects softer risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressures, and he remains confident about a potential rally:
“As debasement ramps and liquidity returns, Bitcoin historically responds sharply. We have been buying.”
He also forecasted that gold could climb to $5,000 in 2026, with increased volatility likely to accompany the broader bull run.
Strong Fundamentals Point to Gradual Growth
Experts see Bitcoin and Ethereum’s performance next year being driven largely by macroeconomic factors. Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, told Cryptonews that crypto prices are expected to respond gradually rather than with sudden jumps.
“The strongest fundamental drivers of BTC and ETH in 2026 will remain macroeconomic,” Lienkha said, citing interest rates, liquidity trends, and overall risk sentiment as key influences.
He added that corporate treasury allocations to crypto could also provide a boost, while increasing regulatory clarity across jurisdictions is expected to encourage broader institutional participation.
We’re likely to see a significant rise in the involvement of banks and other financial institutions in the market in 2026.
In short, while Bitcoin has underperformed this year, VanEck sees 2026 as a year of recovery and steady growth, underpinned by macroeconomic trends, institutional adoption, and strong fundamental drivers.
