Bitcoin could still reach new all-time highs in 2026 — even after a disappointing year — if more dollars start flowing back into the financial system, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
Bitcoin lagged behind gold and tech stocks in 2025, but Hayes says the reason isn’t complicated. It wasn’t about sentiment or momentum. It was about liquidity.
Hayes: Bitcoin Needs More Dollars in the System
In a post published Wednesday, Hayes asked a simple question: why did Bitcoin struggle while gold soared and the Nasdaq kept climbing?
His answer was straightforward — there weren’t enough dollars sloshing around.
“Dollar liquidity has to expand,” Hayes said. “That’s what ultimately drives Bitcoin higher.” He expects that shift to happen in 2026.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin performs best when money is easy and abundant. When liquidity tightens, as it did in 2025, Bitcoin tends to stall — even as other assets find ways to keep rising.
What Could Loosen Liquidity?
Hayes laid out several developments that could open the monetary floodgates again.
One is a possible expansion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which would inject fresh money into the economy. He also pointed to falling mortgage rates and changes in how banks lend, particularly if more credit flows into government-backed strategic industries.
Military spending is another factor. Hayes argued that the U.S. will continue financing large-scale defense production through the banking system, a process that indirectly expands the money supply.
All of this, he said, creates an environment that historically favors scarce assets like Bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin Fell Behind Gold and Tech
Hayes acknowledged that liquidity actually shrunk in 2025 — and Bitcoin felt it. The price fell more than 14% over the year, while gold surged over 44%.
Tech stocks told a different story. The sector was the top performer in the S&P 500, outperforming the broader market.
Hayes believes government intervention explains much of that gap. In his view, artificial intelligence has effectively been “nationalized” by the U.S. and China, ensuring capital continues flowing into AI-related companies regardless of traditional market conditions.
Bitcoin as “Monetary Technology”
Despite Bitcoin’s recent underperformance, Hayes warned against writing it off.
He described Bitcoin as “monetary technology” — an asset whose value is tied directly to fiat currency debasement. As long as governments continue expanding the money supply over time, he argues, Bitcoin’s long-term value remains intact.
That said, Hayes was clear: prices near $100,000 don’t happen by accident. They require sustained monetary expansion.
Long-Term Bulls Still Confident
Hayes isn’t alone in his outlook. Venture capitalist Tim Draper reiterated this week that he expects 2026 to be a breakout year for Bitcoin, sticking with his long-standing $250,000 price target.
Abra CEO Bill Barhydt also sees opportunity ahead, saying Bitcoin could benefit as central banks ease policy and inject fresh liquidity into global markets after an extended period of tight financial conditions.
For Hayes, the message is simple: Bitcoin’s next major rally won’t start with hype — it will start when the dollars start flowing again.
