Bitcoin drifted lower in early Asia on Friday, slipping toward $85,200, as regional markets steadied after a tech-led rebound on Wall Street. Attention quickly shifted to Japan, where a Bank of Japan rate decision later in the day loomed as the next potential catalyst for currencies and bonds.
The mood was helped by a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print overnight, with headline CPI slowing to 2.7%. Still, traders were cautious about taking the data at face value, noting the reading may have been artificially dragged lower by distortions linked to the U.S. government shutdown.
Crypto snapshot
Bitcoin: $85,811, down 1%
Ether: $2,836, down 0.1%
XRP: $1.79, down 3.8%
Total crypto market cap: $2.97 trillion, down 1.4%
Rather than reacting to macro headlines, crypto traders focused on flows and positioning. Analysts at Bitfinex said institutional buyers are currently absorbing roughly 13% more bitcoin than the ~450 coins mined each day, marking what they called the first meaningful supply flip since early November — even as concerns linger around ETF outflows.
From a technical standpoint, they pointed to strong buying interest between $82,000 and $85,000, a zone that could help stabilize price action if it continues to hold. Sustained support there, they said, may encourage fresh ETF inflows and reduce selling pressure, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.
Some market watchers used the pullback to zoom out. Dom Harz, co-founder of Bitcoin-based DeFi project BOB, argued the recent volatility doesn’t undermine Bitcoin’s longer-term opportunity.
“Despite nearly $2 trillion in market cap, only about 0.3% of BTC is actively used in native Bitcoin DeFi,” Harz said. “That dormant capital represents a major opportunity for lending, borrowing, and yield — without compromising Bitcoin’s security.”
Japan in focus
Asia’s macro spotlight stayed firmly on Japan. Markets priced in roughly a 90% chance the Bank of Japan would raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, with traders eager for clues on how far policymakers may go next.
Investors currently expect just one more hike to 1.0% in 2026. Any hint of a steeper path could offer relief to the struggling yen — but at the cost of added pressure on Japanese government bonds.
Fresh data showed Japan’s core CPI rose 3.0% in November, unchanged from the prior month, keeping inflation squarely in focus ahead of the decision.
Equities reflected the improving tone. Japan’s Nikkei climbed 0.6%, South Korea rose 1.2% following strong results from Micron Technology, and MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index outside Japan added 0.2%.
Global markets: cautious, not convinced
U.S. futures were steady after Thursday’s rebound, while bond markets reacted cautiously to the CPI surprise. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered near 4.13%, below this week’s highs but still elevated.
Diverging central-bank signals added complexity. UK bonds slipped after the Bank of England delivered a closely split rate cut, with policymakers warning against moving too quickly. The European Central Bank struck an even firmer tone, holding rates at 2.0% and signalling its easing cycle may be largely over.
For now, markets are stabilizing — but with major central-bank decisions ahead, traders remain reluctant to chase risk too aggressively.
