Bitcoin isn’t exactly struggling right now, but Arthur Hayes has just put out one of his boldest macro calls yet. And interestingly, he doesn’t think the biggest risk to Bitcoin is missiles flying in the Middle East.
Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX and now runs Maelstrom, is still sticking to an aggressive long-term outlook — somewhere between $500K and $750K for Bitcoin by the end of 2026. But he believes the road to get there won’t be smooth. In fact, it could pass through a pretty harsh deflationary phase that markets aren’t fully pricing in yet.
In a recent interview on the Coinage YouTube channel, Hayes argued that the real pressure on markets isn’t coming from geopolitics — it’s coming from AI. More specifically, the way AI is starting to replace high-income knowledge workers.
His thinking is simple: when well-paid workers lose jobs, spending drops, credit tightens, and overall economic activity slows. That creates a deflationary environment, which isn’t great for risk assets like crypto in the short term.
Yes, oil markets are reacting to tensions like a potential Israel–Iran conflict escalation, Hayes admits. But in his view, that’s not the main story. The bigger force is this slow, structural shift driven by AI adoption.
He describes Bitcoin almost like a “liquidity alarm.” It doesn’t really take off until central banks start turning the money taps back on. Right now, with momentum indicators like RSI sitting around neutral levels, the market seems to agree — Bitcoin is basically waiting.
At the moment, Bitcoin is hovering around $70,700, and traders are watching one key level: $76,000. That’s the resistance that needs to break for any meaningful upside. On the downside, the market looks fairly supported near current levels, although a dip below $70K isn’t off the table if conditions worsen.
The technical picture reflects indecision. RSI around 50 suggests neither hype nor panic — just consolidation, with pressure quietly building in the background.
Where things go from here depends heavily on macro triggers.
If geopolitical stress escalates and forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity or cut rates, Bitcoin could break above $76K and start moving toward Hayes’ mid-term target of $250K. Historically, those kinds of policy shifts have been strong tailwinds for BTC.
On the other hand, if AI-driven job losses accelerate and credit conditions tighten further, Bitcoin could stay stuck in a range between $70K and $74K for a while — possibly even into late 2026. In a more bearish scenario, a deeper deflationary shock could push prices back below $70K and delay the whole bullish thesis.
It’s also worth noting that Hayes has missed big calls before — including a $200K target that didn’t materialize when Bitcoin stayed closer to $70K. Big predictions need equally big catalysts, and right now, those catalysts seem to come down to two things: central bank policy and global conflict.
Meanwhile, newer projects like LiquidChain are trying to position themselves for whatever comes next. The idea is to solve one of crypto’s long-standing problems — fragmented liquidity across different blockchains.
LiquidChain aims to connect networks like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana into a single system, allowing developers to build once and access multiple ecosystems at the same time. If it works, it could make cross-chain activity smoother and reduce inefficiencies that have historically slowed things down.
