The usual four-year cycle narrative around Bitcoin might not apply anymore—at least, that’s what Samson Mow is arguing.
The Jan3 CEO recently said the traditional halving-driven price model is effectively “dead.” In its place, he’s pointing to something much more aggressive: what he calls an “Omega candle,” a sharp, almost vertical move that could send Bitcoin toward the $1 million mark.
In a recent interview, Mow suggested the market is underestimating just how little BTC is actually available. In his view, anything below $120,000 is already undervalued based on supply dynamics alone.
His reasoning comes down to demand. With more institutional players stepping in—especially companies accumulating Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategy—he believes buying pressure is building faster than most people realize.
Not everyone sees it the same way
Mow’s outlook is bold, but he’s not the only one thinking long-term.
Matt Hougan, for example, has also floated the idea of Bitcoin reaching $1 million—but on a much longer timeline. His model suggests it could happen within a decade if Bitcoin captures a meaningful share of the global store-of-value market.
Others, like Cathie Wood and Michael Saylor, have made similar high-end projections, though each uses a different framework to get there.
In the shorter term, the focus is a bit more grounded. ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and continued institutional adoption are still the key drivers most traders are watching.
Where things stand right now
At around $77,000, Bitcoin is still roughly 40% below its all-time high from late 2025. That gap leaves room for two very different interpretations.
On one side, you have the bullish argument: this is just consolidation before the next leg higher. Price has been relatively stable, and the broader “digital gold” narrative is still intact.
On the other hand, there’s the more cautious view—that this could be a typical post-rally cooldown phase, where enthusiasm fades and price takes time to reset.
Technically, the near-term trend still leans slightly bullish, but it’s not a runaway move. It looks more like a market waiting for its next catalyst.
The $1 million argument
Part of the long-term bull case comes from simple math.
If Bitcoin continues to position itself as a store of value—similar to gold—then its potential market size expands significantly. Gold itself has grown far beyond what most expected two decades ago, and some analysts believe Bitcoin could follow a similar path.
With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, it doesn’t take an extreme shift in global capital to push prices much higher. If demand keeps rising while supply stays constrained, the imbalance does most of the work.
Add to that the growing trend of corporate accumulation—something Michael Saylor has been heavily associated with—and you get the kind of sustained buying pressure that could, in theory, trigger a much sharper move than previous cycles.
That’s essentially what Mow means by an “Omega candle”: a rapid surge that compresses what would normally take months into a much shorter window.
The catch? Timing. No one really knows when—or if—it plays out that way.
Why some traders are looking earlier in the cycle
For many investors, the idea of Bitcoin hitting $1 million is exciting—but also feels distant. And for those who didn’t get in early, the upside can seem less dramatic compared to past cycles.
That’s why some are turning their attention to projects building around the Bitcoin ecosystem itself.
One example gaining traction is Bitcoin Hyper, a project aiming to bring Layer 2 scalability to Bitcoin while integrating features similar to high-speed chains. The idea is to address some of Bitcoin’s long-standing limitations—like slower transactions and higher fees—while keeping its core security intact.
So far, the presale has raised over $32.5 million, with the token priced around $0.0136. Early participants are also being offered staking incentives, which is helping drive initial interest.
Still, like any early-stage project, it comes with uncertainty. Execution, adoption, and real-world use will ultimately decide whether it delivers on its promise.
Bitcoin remains the more established, lower-risk asset with long-term upside tied to global adoption. Newer projects offer earlier entry points and potentially bigger gains—but with much more risk attached.
And right now, the market is trying to decide which of those paths is more compelling.
