VanEck is calling 2026 a “risk-on” year for investors, even as Bitcoin appears to be breaking away from its traditional four-year cycle.
In its Q1 2026 outlook, the asset manager says clearer fiscal and monetary policy signals are giving markets something they’ve lacked in recent years: visibility. VanEck believes that clarity opens the door for risk-taking — with artificial intelligence, private credit, and gold standing out as attractive opportunities after sharp corrections late in 2025.
That view contrasts with Goldman Sachs, which expects roughly 11% global stock returns driven mainly by equities rather than alternative assets.
Clearer Policy, Calmer Markets
VanEck attributes much of the improved outlook to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whose comments late in 2025 helped shape expectations around interest rates.
CEO Jan van Eck said a podcast interview with Bessent left a strong impression.
“He explained that today’s interest rates are actually normal,” van Eck said, pushing back against the idea that aggressive rate cuts are needed. Under this framework, markets are now expecting only 25 to 50 basis points of rate adjustments through 2026.
Van Eck also highlighted Bessent’s criticism of excessive post-COVID quantitative easing, which he blamed for fueling 10% inflation that continues to frustrate Americans.
Improving Fiscal Picture and Stronger Growth
On the fiscal side, VanEck sees real progress. Deficits are shrinking as a share of GDP compared with pandemic-era highs, helping keep long-term interest rates in check.
The firm projects the 2026 fiscal deficit at 5.5% of GDP or less, a more optimistic view than many on Wall Street. Van Eck also argues economic growth could exceed expectations, noting that Q4 2025 GDP growth hit 4%, far above forecasts hovering just over 2%.
Concerns about political pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of a potential leadership change in 2026 are also overblown, van Eck said, adding that Bessent’s groundwork should allow for a smooth transition.
AI Pullback Creates Opportunity
VanEck believes the sell-off in AI-related stocks late in 2025 has reset valuations to more attractive levels.
“The bubble has popped, and it’s time to reload,” van Eck said, pointing to companies tied to data center expansion that saw their share prices fall more than 50% from summer highs.
Even large, diversified players like Oracle pulled back sharply despite strong demand for computing power. Stocks linked to nuclear energy, which supports AI’s growing electricity needs, also repriced, improving their risk-reward profile for medium-term investors.
Private Credit and Gold Back in Focus
Private credit is another area VanEck sees opportunity after a rough 2025. Business development companies are now offering yields near 9%, reflecting fears around floating-rate debt and isolated fraud cases.
Van Eck noted that firms like Ares Capital have seen valuations compress significantly, bringing them back toward historical norms.
“A famous Wall Street CEO said there was a cockroach in the private credit market,” van Eck said. “Those fears are overdone — but now they’re well priced.”
Gold, meanwhile, continues to reassert itself as a global monetary asset. VanEck points to strong central bank demand and a gradual move away from dollar dominance.
Recent geopolitical developments, including instability in Venezuela, reinforce gold’s appeal as governments reassess political and asset-seizure risks. While gold may look stretched in the short term, VanEck views pullbacks as buying opportunities within a long-term trend that could extend well beyond 2028.
Bitcoin’s Cycle Break Clouds the Near Term
Bitcoin remains a wildcard.
Its traditional four-year cycle appeared to break in 2025, making near-term signals less reliable. VanEck is cautious over the next three to six months, noting that Bitcoin was the worst-performing major asset in 2025 despite not reaching its typical late-cycle peak.
While some VanEck strategists remain more optimistic in the short term, the firm’s caution aligns with warnings from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who says capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up as investors rotate into stocks and precious metals.
The result, VanEck suggests, could be sideways Bitcoin price action through early 2026, even as the broader investment landscape turns decisively risk-on.
