A major push to give the US crypto industry a clear set of national rules may be slowing down as Washington starts looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections.
According to a new note from investment bank TD Cowen, the political calendar—not the policy itself—could end up being the biggest obstacle to passing a long-awaited crypto market structure bill.
What’s at stake
TD Cowen warns that the legislation, which aims to create a unified regulatory framework for digital assets, may not make it across the finish line until 2027. Even then, the rules might not fully take effect until 2029.
The concern is that as election season heats up, lawmakers—especially Senate Democrats—may be reluctant to support a bill that could become politically sensitive if control of Congress is up for grabs.
“With election outcomes always uncertain, timing matters,” the bank said, suggesting that political strategy could outweigh policy substance in deciding when the bill moves forward.
Why politics is slowing things down
One of the most contentious issues remains conflict-of-interest rules for senior government officials. A bipartisan draft released by the Senate Agriculture Committee in November tries to address those concerns by preventing top officials—including Donald Trump and his family—from holding cryptocurrencies or directly participating in the industry while in office.
Those provisions reflect long-standing Democratic unease about Trump’s ties to crypto-related ventures. Critics have highlighted links to projects such as World Liberty Financial, a crypto mining operation called American Bitcoin, Trump-branded digital tokens, and his pardon of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao.
Delay may open the door to compromise
TD Cowen notes that a longer timeline could actually make agreement easier. If the bill passes in 2027 and doesn’t take effect until 2029, some of the political pressure may fade.
In that scenario, the crypto industry may have to accept that presidential election results could shape the final rules. At the same time, Democrats may need to acknowledge that conflict-of-interest restrictions would not apply retroactively to Trump.
What happens next
For now, the legislative process continues. The Responsible Financial Innovation Act is waiting for markups in both the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee, with the first votes possibly coming later this month.
Industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic. Coinbase’s head of institutional strategy recently said that while crypto market structure rules will take longer than stablecoin legislation, bipartisan support is still strong.
Speaking to CNBC, John D’Agostino warned that the US risks falling behind as clearer regulations overseas attract talent and investment away from American markets—adding urgency to getting federal crypto rules in place sooner rather than later.
