Bitcoin price has declined more than 30% from its yearly high, largely due to geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures that have weakened investor appetite for risk assets.
Summary
Bitcoin price has fallen over 30% from its yearly peak amid geopolitical tensions and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds impacting risk assets.
Analysts at Bernstein expect market weakness to continue until Q1 earnings, with crypto-linked stocks sharply down but possibly approaching a bottom.
Bearish technical indicators suggest further downside toward $60,000, while a move above $69,000 could indicate a shift in momentum.
After rallying nearly 12% to a yearly high of $97,538 on Jan. 15, Bitcoin has dropped around 31% to $67,525 at the time of writing. This decline comes amid rising geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns, largely driven by tariff tensions under Donald Trump, along with escalating conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, which has impacted global energy and financial markets.
The hawkish stance maintained by the Federal Reserve has further added pressure on markets.
According to analysts at Bernstein, the resulting volatility has pushed crypto-linked stocks—including companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure—down nearly 60% from their recent highs. Despite this, these firms continue to expand operations, suggesting the decline reflects sentiment rather than fundamentals.
In a recent note to clients, Bernstein analysts indicated that current market weakness could persist until first-quarter earnings are released, at which point a potential bottom may form. This outlook implies that Bitcoin could remain under pressure at least through April.
Bitcoin price analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has broken below a key descending trendline that previously acted as support for bullish moves.
Technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI continue to point toward a bearish setup. The MACD has formed a bearish crossover and is trending downward, while the RSI is moving within a descending channel—both signaling sustained selling pressure.
At present, the $65,000 level stands as a key psychological support that bulls are likely to defend. A decisive drop below this level could open the door for further downside toward the yearly low near $60,000.
On the upside, a move above $69,000—aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level—could signal a shift in momentum.
Long-term outlook remains positive
Despite the recent downturn, Bernstein maintains an “outperform” rating on crypto-linked stocks. Analysts believe the weakness is largely driven by macro conditions and negative sentiment rather than any deterioration in business fundamentals.
This suggests that after a potentially weak quarter, these companies—and Bitcoin itself—could recover in the longer term, especially once geopolitical tensions ease and market conditions stabilize.
