Brad Garlinghouse stated at XRP Las Vegas that he expects the CLARITY Act to be approved by the end of May, marking his third public timeline after earlier predicting an April passage and later shifting expectations to May at multiple industry forums.
Summary
Garlinghouse initially estimated an 80% chance of the bill passing in April during a February appearance on Fox Business. He later adjusted that outlook to late May at the FII Priority Miami Summit on March 27 and reiterated the same timeline at the Semafor World Economy Summit on April 13.
He believes the long-standing disagreement over stablecoin yield rules—responsible for delaying progress since January—is nearing resolution. According to him, rising frustration among lawmakers often signals that a compromise is close.
Meanwhile, Senator Thom Tillis said he plans to request Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott to set a markup date once the Senate reconvenes on May 11, making that week the earliest possible window for committee action.
Garlinghouse reaffirmed his late-May projection during the XRP Las Vegas event on April 30, months after first expressing strong confidence in an April timeline. He suggested the bill could move through the Senate Banking Committee, pass the full Senate, and reach former President Donald Trump before the Memorial Day recess on May 21. He emphasized that peak political frustration often leads to last-minute agreements.
As noted by crypto.news, the urgency around the bill extends beyond Garlinghouse. Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that this may be the last viable opportunity to pass the CLARITY Act before 2030, a sentiment echoed by Bernie Moreno. Both highlighted the rare alignment across government branches that may not persist after upcoming elections. Despite missed deadlines, support for the bill has grown, with over 120 firms—including Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and Andreessen Horowitz—backing it and calling for swift action in a joint letter sent on April 23.
The dispute over whether third-party platforms can offer yield on stablecoins—seen as the main roadblock—appears close to being resolved, especially after the White House Council of Economic Advisers reported that banning such yields could cost consumers around $800 million annually.
At this stage, the primary hurdle is timing. The Senate returns on May 11, while the Memorial Day recess begins on May 21, leaving a narrow window for progress. Market expectations remain cautious, with platforms like Polymarket estimating passage odds at about 46%, while firms such as Galaxy Research and TD Cowen place the likelihood closer to a coin toss or lower—making Garlinghouse’s confidence notably more optimistic than the broader consensus.
