Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has weighed in on Bitcoin’s latest quantum security proposal—and he’s not convinced it works the way people think it does.
His main point is pretty blunt: even if developers push through a fix, a large chunk of early Bitcoin could still be permanently out of reach. Some estimates put that number at around 1.7 million BTC.
Why Hoskinson Thinks the “Fix” Falls Short
In a recent video, Hoskinson broke down BIP-361, a proposal backed by developer Jameson Lopp that aims to protect Bitcoin from potential quantum computing threats.
The idea is to gradually phase out older wallet types that could be vulnerable. On paper, it’s being described as a “soft fork”—a type of upgrade that doesn’t split the network.
Hoskinson disagrees with that framing.
According to him, the changes would effectively require a hard fork, because they would invalidate existing cryptographic methods that users still rely on. And in Bitcoin’s world, hard forks are a big deal—they challenge the network’s long-standing principle of stability and immutability.
In his words, calling it a soft fork is misleading.
The Bigger Issue: Lost Coins Stay Lost
The more interesting part of his argument isn’t about forks—it’s about recovery.
One idea within BIP-361 is that users could reclaim vulnerable funds using zero-knowledge proofs tied to a BIP-39 seed phrase.
But there’s a catch.
BIP-39 didn’t exist until 2013. That means wallets created before then—including those believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto—don’t have compatible seed phrases.
So even if the system works as intended, it wouldn’t apply to those early coins. By that logic, a significant portion of Bitcoin’s supply—including Satoshi’s estimated holdings—would remain inaccessible no matter what changes are made.
Bullish Price Outlook Still Intact
Despite his criticism of the proposal, Hoskinson isn’t bearish on Bitcoin itself.
In fact, he’s sticking with a bold forecast: BTC reaching $250,000 by mid-2026. His reasoning leans on growing institutional adoption, continued integration with major tech players, and improving regulatory clarity.
From a market perspective, Bitcoin has already shown strength. It’s currently trading just below $74,000, recovering from earlier lows driven by geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts have been steadily revising their outlook upward as macro conditions improve.
What This Means for the Market
The quantum security debate adds a layer of uncertainty that’s hard to model.
If BIP-361 moves forward smoothly, it could strengthen long-term confidence. But if it turns into a contentious hard fork debate, short-term volatility is almost guaranteed.
Either way, it highlights a bigger reality: Bitcoin is evolving, but not without trade-offs.
Where Traders Are Looking Next
With Bitcoin already a multi-trillion-dollar asset, the kind of explosive upside seen in its early days is harder to come by. That’s why some traders are shifting focus toward projects building on top of Bitcoin rather than the asset itself.
One example is Bitcoin Hyper, which aims to create a faster, more flexible layer on top of Bitcoin by integrating Solana-style execution. The goal is to tackle long-standing issues like speed, cost, and limited programmability.
Of course, early-stage projects come with their own risks—uncertain execution, limited liquidity, and high volatility. They’re a very different bet compared to holding BTC.
