Three brand-new wallets. Nearly half a million dollars in profit. No prior on-chain activity.
That’s what’s raising eyebrows on Polymarket’s U.S.–Iran ceasefire market. The blockchain evidence is already out there—and it’s hard to ignore.
When the ceasefire news finally hit, crypto markets reacted with a sharp Bitcoin spike toward $71K. But the more intriguing story may have happened hours earlier—before Trump even posted about it.
The suspicious trades
Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain flagged three newly created wallets that together made $484,575 betting “yes” on a ceasefire happening by April 7.
Here’s why it looks unusual:
All three wallets were brand new, with zero prior activity.
They placed bets when the odds were extremely low—between 2.9% and 10.3%.
The individual profits were:
$200,525
$158,600
$125,450
One of the wallets made its first transaction just 8.5 hours before Trump confirmed the deal. The other two entered the market slightly earlier.
Patterns like this have appeared before—anonymous wallets netted roughly $400,000 on U.S.–Venezuela events under similar circumstances.
Market context
The ceasefire market itself saw massive activity:
$60 million traded in 24 hours
$162.6 million total volume
The contract eventually resolved at 100%, paying out in full. Other Iran-related markets also surged, with hundreds of millions traded over just a couple of days.
So while the volume shows genuine crowd interest, the timing of these three wallets is strikingly precise.
Bigger picture
Polymarket has already faced political scrutiny for its war-related markets. But events like this also show the power and transparency of blockchain: anyone can see the trades, the timing, and the results.
